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Credit Suisse uses neural nets to call minute-ahead forex - Risk.net

fintech #trading #algotrading #quantitative #quant

Credit Suisse uses neural nets to call minute-ahead forex Credit Suisse’s foreign exchange group is using deep learning for minute-to-minute price forecasting, harnessed by a control framework to keep the bank from taking on too much risk.
“This used to be a business where you’d just have a bunch of people in the room buying and selling currencies, and now it’s gotten to the point where AI is part of the solution,” says John Estrada, global co-head of forex spot trading at Credit Suisse.
Deep learning, also called deep neural networks, is a subset of
Continue reading at: https://www.risk.net/node/7182261
submitted by silahian to quant_hft [link] [comments]

e-Forex Magazine | Machine learning stirs up competition in FX Algo Trading

fintech #algotrading #hedgefunds #quants #hft

e-Forex Magazine | Machine learning stirs up competition in FX Algo TradingIvy Schmerken Though capital markets firms have been adopting artificial intelligence and machine learning to train algorithms for equity trading, recently this trend has expanded to foreign exchange. Ivy Schmerken, Editorial Director at Flextrade Systems, has written widely about this topic and we asked her to revisit it for e-Forex. By crunching vast quantities of data by computer, machine learning algorithms can identify hidden patterns in past data and learn to forecast stock market returns or FX currency pairs. Large banks have been investing millions into advanced technologies such as AI and machine learning to capture a bigger share of the algo trading market.
JP Morgan developed a new algorithm dubbed DNA – or Deep Neural Network for Algo Execution to merge what a multitude of algos do into a single strategy, allowing the framework to decide how a client’s order should be executed, reported Reuters .....
Continue reading at: https://www.e-forex.net/articles/aug-2020-machine-learning-stirs-up-competition-in-fx-algo-trading.html
submitted by silahian to quant_hft [link] [comments]

[D] Need advice on activation functions

I am writing a feed forward neural network that uses NEAT to learn to trade in the forex market. I've gotten a bit stuck trying to choose an activation function for my network. I am reluctant to use relu because of the dying network problem, but there are a lot of relu variations that I could consider using. I was thinking of using Leaky Relu or Relu6 (or perhaps a combination of the two) or Selu but I'm not sure which one would be best. Can anyone give me advice on which one would work best for my network or if I should just stick with normal relu or another not mentioned activation function? Also any comments or advice or critiques of the way I'm going about this would be appreciated as well. My neural net is going to be fairly shallow, with just one hidden layer to start, if that matters. I understand some activation functions work better on deeper nets and some on more shallow ones.
Thanks!
submitted by MrStashley to MachineLearning [link] [comments]

Microsoft invests $1 billion in the organization for the development of artificial intelligence OpenAI

Microsoft invests $1 billion in the organization for the development of artificial intelligence OpenAI
Microsoft said it planned to invest $1 billion in the organization for the development of artificial intelligence OpenAI, according to the VentureBeat publication.
https://preview.redd.it/4mx4p4vja2c31.jpg?width=3500&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=4f508ea4e98779acca66737cbeb9f06d2021d45c
The companies have agreed to enter into a partnership to jointly develop AI technologies based on the Microsoft Azure cloud platform. Under the terms of the deal, the corporation will be able to sell products based on some OpenAI technologies. Besides, the organization will use the Azure cloud to test its AI models.
"AI is one of the most transformative technologies of our time and has the potential to help solve many of our world's most pressing challenges," said Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella. "By bringing together OpenAI's breakthrough technology with new Azure AI supercomputing technologies, our ambition is to democratize AI — while always keeping AI safety front and center — so everyone can benefit."
Co-founder of OpenAI, Greg Brockman, said that the company needed this partnership also because of the lack of computing power. According to the company, from 2012 to 2018, the number of calculations required for launching AI models increased more than 300 thousand times.
In 2018, a quarter of all expenses of OpenAI fell on cloud computing, Reuters writes. In 2017, the company spent in this area approximately $7.8 million.
The organization has released several projects: the OpenAI Gym AI research platform, the Neural MMO gaming platform for bots training, the MuseNet AI 4-minute composition generator, the OpenAI Five program, which beat the professional Dota 2 players and others.
OpenAI was founded by Elon Musk, Peter Thiel and other partners in 2015. All of them have invested $1 billion in the organization. Until 2020, the company planned to spend only "a small part of this amount."
In February 2019, Musk announced that he had left the company due to a conflict of interest. According to him, Tesla tried to hire the same people as OpenAI.
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1broker copy guide - avoiding extreme losses

First off, let me state that I am not even close to a professional when it comes to trading. I got in a few months ago for passive income from copying 3.14fx and have come a long way since then, quadrupling my initial investment and losing half of it. I've watched traders such as cfdtrader, Lumyo, Robot, and crypto_chris lose several hundred percent after a fail from opening multiple positions. I got into 1broker to make money without monitoring it, but instead I learned a lot about trading and risk management, even profiting off several of my own trades. It's a valuable experience in itself even if you're not profiting and I wouldn't give it up for anything. If these losses are enough to make you quit, so be it. Investing comes with risks that some people can't handle. It's not free money.
https://www.dailyfx.com/calendar is the economic calendar that I use while trading. High importance events can easily trigger a 80% loss or gain depending on the direction you choose. It's highly risky to trade when someone of great importance such as Draghi or Yellen are speaking.
Even if you follow a general MAX 5% rule, you will still lose up to 16% of your account if somebody opens 4 of the same positions and they stop at 80%. Making back money is also tougher than losing it, as once you lose 16% of your account, 5% of your account is a lot less than before. Therefore, you have less capital per trade.
Also, be careful when changing your copy amount. I often see copiers saying things like "Great work, I'm upping my copy amount" and "Increased copy amount from x to x". In my opinion, increasing a copy amount should only be done when your initial amount is already low. Losses on a higher copy amount may wipe out the gains on a smaller copy amount. (-50% loss with 0.1 btc = +100% gains with 0.05 btc) Always stick to a 5% max rule unless you're feeling risky.
Then, there comes the gambling/greed phase that many new copiers often do. (Guilty of this myself). After extreme success, a copier may feel the need to upgrade their copy reward to maximize profit. Or after extreme failure, a copier may feel they need to upgrade their copy reward to make up for losses. All of these are mistakes.
1broker is not filled with market professionals. Most of us here are either self taught or complete novices. Professionals would not be sharing their trades for about $70-80 for each trade (at best). They won't be asking for copiers on other traders' profiles. They won't be using a Pikachu as their profile picture. They won't be using a broker that isn't heavily regulated and insured. They would be using their own capital to make millions off of trades.
Remember, any newbie can easily accumulate winning trades by gambling with high leverage. As long as they have around $1300 as of now, they can easily create a profile that suggests that they are a professional, when in reality they are entering at random points and exiting when a position turns into profit, rather than using technical analysis and watching economic calendars.
And even the best of traders will have their ups and downs. I've stuck with 3.14FX even when he reached -100% this month because he's had a great history on this site. I feel that he can make the money that he loses back. And even though he has doubled up on a position yesterday (not sure why, probably was extremely confident), it was a success.
Can you really trust anyone? No way! Unlike regular trading, 1broker is more unregulated. Signing up requires no personal information so any user with malicious intent can build up a steady reputation and perform an exit scam (or have a massive failure) without any reparations. Robot has no link to any social media or anything in his profile. For all we know, he could own another account that has -100%, and he is depending on luck while opening multiple positions to accumulate followers. (I just used Robot as an example, my intent is not to accuse him of multiple accounts)
Then there are potential exit scams (from a trader, not 1broker itself) that will drain a decent portion of your account. There's a reason why you have a choice to choose how many trades maximum you can copy per day. This hasn't happened yet, but it will definitely happen in the foreseeable future. Somebody will set up an order for 50 shorts and 50 longs and set the take profit and stop loss the opposite of each other. Then after closing, they'll withdraw their bitcoin never to be heard of again.
When you put your trust in a trader, you should trust them to carefully monitor a trade. Unfortunately, there's currently no way to tell if your copied trader is online or not, so you'll never know if they're in a coma and won't be back for another 6 months. My suggestion is to either take profit when you think that the conditions are correct or just trust the trader. Nobody can see the future. If you think that you'll rather close the trade before the weekend, it's your choice. If you think upcoming news will destroy the trade, feel free to close early. However, be prepared for regret if it goes up, or a great feeling that you dodged a bullet if it goes down. It's all a part of trading.
1broker's copy system is seriously flawed at the moment. Of course, there's no easy way to fix it. Why would a great trader want to share one of their trades if they're not getting much out of it? This encourages opening multiple positions to maximize copy rewards, which can result in massive losses. Robot is one of the traders exploiting this.
So how can you prevent massive losses? There's really no way. You're putting your trust in random people without an identity, who can easily be a scammer. When it comes to people like Robot, I put 1-2% of my funds because I know that he opens multiple positions. This is why I'm always sticking with 3.14FX, he established himself a long time ago and he knows what he is doing. Somebody who has been on the platform for over 3 years with several losses is preferable to an anonymous newcomer who just registered but appears to be good at trading.
Also, the percentage on 1broker is misleading. You may think "Wow, I'm going to get an 500% of my initial investment if I copy Lumyo!" In reality, you should only be using 5% max of your capital per trade. If you copied him from the beginning (I started copying at around 90%), you should have only gained 25% rather than 500%. But still, 25% of your initial investment is huge.

My opinion on several traders

vits2015: If you watched vits2015 from the beginning, you would know that their style of trading is... off. 15 positions on UK100, all short, some of them at -30% when I first saw him as a successful trader. What does that tell me about him? He can open up to 6 positions on the same trade at once, and is willing to hold them as long as possible to get a profit. (Average holding time 8 days)
gtfann: Even with recent losses, he still appears to be a decent trader. It seems that he upped his usual leverage due to the crowds of traders flocking to copy him though. Multiple positions with a lower leverage isn't really something that I like either, but I'm sticking with him for now until there's a drastic change.
vaiono: He lets his losses play out and even though he has a decent track record,it's still risky to play with. Silver is extremely volatile and due to leverage, a small move in any direction can either be a huge loss or huge gain.
Snortex: Pretty much a meme on 1broker. He acknowledges his trading style and warns his copiers. I like him as a person due to his warnings, but still wouldn't recommend copying him unless you can afford to lose a lot. Edit: After examination of his trades, I feel like he's not only gambling like his description suggests. His entries are planned out carefully (Although that has hurt him when there was a flash crash). You'll take several 80% losses but you may take several 400% gains. He seems to have a habit of chasing a trade, which can lead to multiple 80% losses. However, once the trend reverses, his profits go through the roof. When you're copying, copy for the long term! Of course, feel free to uncopy if you feel that the bottom is still far away.
noIDea: He has had bad stretches in the past, but still makes his way back. I think he's a good trader and even though he opens multiple positions, he's one of the best at setting stop losses so the risk is not as high as others who open multiple trades.
Gold_Gangsta: Name change from Crypto Chris for some reason? Be wary of multiple positions as the USDJPY fiasco shows. Seems to be doing fairly well with gold as of now.
1monk2: Multiple positions fairly often, even says that he's drunk in the description. This is gambling.
knightlife999: The description definitely shows promise. There is no proof to those claims on the site, but I feel it's safe to allocate some of your funds toward copying him with his track record.
HedgeCryFx Risk 5: Decent trader, pays attention to economic calendar as well. The only problem is that he lets losses play out to 80%
boogi: I would be wary about the higher losses, but then again, there's a good track record.
sergiomc: Seems to be decent at trading stocks. With an average holding time of 14 days and leverage of 10, you should be expecting to lose about ~3.92% of your gains to financing, which is not actually that much.
Cool Hand Luke: Low leverage trading. If you were to copy him, I would recommend only using 1% or 2% of your account max per trade if you plan on copying others as well. He's a great trader for slow steady gains, but if you're looking to get rich fast or go broke trying, this is not the guy for you.
eylemc: Quick trades with minimal profit and no losses so far. As of now, it may be too early to judge, but I think that he's somebody that might be worth copying. Edit: Seems to let losses play out to 80%. Be wary.
3.14fx: Back in the game, doing well with stocks and USDJPY recently. High leverage, but usually stops losses within a reasonable range.
SunnyNet: Small gains, huge losses. Be wary as your first copied trade could easily be a -80%.
SatoshiReport: Trading using a neural network, after looking deep into the trade history, I'm not so sure about it. Correct me if I am wrong, but the bot doesn't take into account important news and events. Edit: This bot has too many flaws to continue copying in my opinion. Even with the previous gains, it opens the same position as soon as one closes, negating the 33% stop loss AND forcing a loss due to the spread. The only thing that keeps it out of the negative is the rare 80% gains that you might find once in a while.
CryptoMessiah: The image being shown on his twitter has weird numbers on it (USDJPY at 100-103 in the matter of minutes), I think it's a simulator so it isn't actually "proved". Also, asking people to copy for "free money" is misleading as anything can go wrong in the forex market, there is no guaranteed money. I copied with a minimum 0.001 btc and will update this post if the bot proves to be successful. Edit: Tons of losses trying to get the right direction and then huge wins. I would say it's ok, but you're better off with a human capitalizing on gains. The only advantage to this bot is 24/7 hour trading.
kosanet: His description says it all. Be careful while copying, but don't be discouraged to place an amount you can afford to lose. He seems to have a great history of monitoring losses (positions never get below 20%) but it's still a new profile who clearly states that he's not a pro. May open multiple trades and trading with USDJPY a lot. His scalping strategy means that overnight fees won't be an issue. Edit: Now he's starting to be a little more risky with his trades as more copiers arrive. Be careful, he never reached liquidation at 80% yet but he could at any moment.
google: A bit late to the party, but what can I say? I honestly can't believe he accumulated 190 copiers but he seems to have faded out quickly. Golgo13 is having a fun time on all of his trades
KillerWhale: Extremely high risk with all of those multiple positions. Like google and robot, don't be fooled by performance recently and look through their whole account. People who saw the 220% recently may have missed when he was in -475% a few days ago.
SoontobeWW3: Great trader in my opinion. However, I think emotion plays a role in his trading as every huge loss is often followed by more.
APPoh: Seems to know what he's doing. However, there is a very short trading history and we're never sure. Positions can reach 50% without closing, so it's very possible that he might let losses play out to 80%.
dingo: Not much to say. Good with 1 position at a time, and even with the 80% loss last month, still ended in profit. Be careful as he might sometimes not stop a position and instead wait for it to recover and a 80% loss is huge compared to his gains.
Edit August 12: Will stop adding new traders now. Before copying someone, remember:
  1. Check their trading history, ALL OF IT. You're entrusting them with your money, you should be 100% sure.
  2. Wait until they've established themselves. Sure, you can be frustrated about potentially losing 200% profit, but it sure beats 700% losses.
I already expressed my views on Robot and 3.14FX above. Lumyo is currently inactive.
Last tip: Don't uncopy people if you feel like they can make it back. If you choose to copy someone, you're in it for the long run. Now this may contradict some of my earlier statements, but if you have somebody that you believe in, don't uncopy them after a loss. Eventually, they will make their way back up and after you see their success again, you'll be tempted to copy again. Of course, if you are copying somebody who you have no faith in, feel free to drop them. Cutting your losses short is important to learn in trading.
submitted by FCatarina to 1Broker [link] [comments]

Looking for programmers to start a team

First, who I am. I work in the financial industry as a level 2 PC support. I have a computer science and mathematics degree and have worked as a programmer for over 3 years, and PC support for over 6. I’ve been working for the last 3 months on “breaking” a platform that we used in the past to auto-trade forex so that it could trade cryptocurrencies. I currently have a system running that has been making roughly .5-1% per day since mid-January but are looking to accelerate and improve this. I also have a system that is projected to make much more but implementing a way to execute those trades on the market will require a bit of work.
The Plan. I’d like to build a team of skilled individuals but divide them into teams that won’t share work with the exception of meetings to talk about progress and if one team seriously needs help understanding something another team is doing. This will slowly go away as everyone gets vetted and works together more frequently. Each of these teams will get their part of the project that I’ve developed over the last 3 months so that they can understand and improve upon it. The only time they will have access to another part of it is when they’re working with a member of that team either through discord or some RDC (Discord, VNC, RDP, TeamViewer, Skype etc.). The reasoning for this is so that one individual can’t run off with all of our work and build their own team to do this with, as has happened to me prior.
At some point I’d like to have everyone I add to the team get well-vetted enough to do away with the segregation and have one team working together, but until I get to know everyone I bring in I need to do this for all our benefit. As of right now I have assembled a team of 5 and look to add a few more.
Stage 2 of the plan -once we have proven ourselves through a strong portfolio- is to eventually build this into a fully-fledged trading fund. I already have someone who’s passed the series 7 and series 65 exams willing to join the team.
Team Structure. Team 1 will need to be strong in coding both python and C#, strong at making things that are not intended to work together run like a clock and will be the core to our back end. All data that comes from Brokers, Google Trends, Google Analytics, Twitter, etc. will come from the back end that is built by this team. As of right now it’s run in python because 2 of the API’s I use don’t have open-API’s but have libraries already built for python. Eventually I’d like to “break” our platform even further and integrate the entire backend into it using C# so everything becomes more streamlined. (2 open spots)
Team 2 will be somewhat split into two subteams, both of which will be working solely on the platform itself. The first subteam will need to be strong and experienced traders, understanding both fundamental and technical trading. A base understanding of programming to better articulate your thoughts to your teammates is also a huge asset. (1 open spot)
The second subteam will be made up of programmers who are able to code C# and are able to understand what the non-programming oriented first half of this team are trying to tell a computer to do. This will consist of writing and testing certain correlations that they may view impactful and creating new indicators as well as re-writing parts of the platform in our favor. (1 open spot)
Team 3 will work on the machine learning. It’s important they have a strong understanding of C# and data science theory. I’d like to integrate this directly into the platform for the sake of consistency and speed. Python is also a useful language to know but is not required. They will work with team 2 short term. And will have a more self-contained project long term. (1 open spot)
What we have:
submitted by OneFinding to algotrading [link] [comments]

How to cope with a lot of noise in DL training?

Hi,
I am working on a deep neural net to find patterns in a data set with tick by tick forex exchange bid and ask prices. Very weak signal (if any) and a lot of noise.
Can anyone offer some ideas on how to deal with the noise, especially how to train the model without just fitting on the noise?
submitted by Hauch to MLQuestions [link] [comments]

Help me understanding neural networks.

Hi, I'm playing with forex making a trading bot.
The bot is simple : if (price is above a certain value of EMA20 and EMA40) AND (EMA20 is above EMA40) then it's a good time to buy.
if price is below a certain value of EMA20 and EMA40 then it's a good time to sell.
So I have 3 input : price, EMA20, EMA40.
So basically I would have 3 input, 4 hidden neurons, and 2 output (buy/sell)
something like that : http://www.kdnuggets.com/wp-content/uploads/ann-in-hidden-out.jpg
And the whole training thing is just :
output_money = 0
1/put random weight on each line betwens neurons
2/run it on the dataset (last 30 days of prices data)
3/if it generated more money than output_money store results and uptade output_money with current value
4/change weight randomly and go back to 2
is this the way you make/train a neural net?
Obviously I'd like to not re-test a weights combination that has already been tested, how can I avoid that? Store already tested wheight combinaison in a database and search inside before each new iteration? (this is quicly going to become time consuming)
And also, why this neurons configuration? is there a reason? why not 10 neurons in the hidden layer? or 2?
Thanks.
submitted by Eildosa to neuralnetworks [link] [comments]

Experienced trader (power/oil/forex) looking for seat

Experienced trader seeking a trading position in ideally the PJM power market, but also experienced in trading ERCOT power, WTI oil, and all major forex pairs. Recently controlled as much as 20% of the PJM UTC market until a major player in the UTC market exited. Also will consider consulting / strategy / analyst roles.
Experience working with:
-Very large datasets
-Very large portfolios (with respect to capital and # of trades)
-Technical Analysis and Backtesting (invention of several new indicators)
-Analysis Techniques (regression, neural networks, decision trees)
-YesEnergy, Genscape, EnergyVelocity, EPA CEMS data, EIA 923 data, etc.
-IT skills: C#, SQL, VBA, VB.NET, Excel programming and design, SQL Server database administration, many others.
submitted by tujuggernaut to houstonjobs [link] [comments]

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JMB Profit Machine Review 2015 - Is JMB Profit Machine SCAM Or LEGIT? Best Binary Options Trading Software. The Truth About JMBProfitMachine Review By Jonathan Mark And Matt Silver Review

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Neural Network For Forex Markets Using Recurrent Neural Networks To Forecasting of Forex Testing the artificial neural network P-net, included in ... Forex Market Prediction using Neural Networks and Armax forex-neural-net.mp4 Neural Nets Trading System - Artificial Intelligence ... I coded neural network for forex prediction in 24h ...

Neural networks are sentient intelligence. At the present time, it is almost impossible to imagine trading without algorithms. It is assumed to be way better than placing all of your orders manually. However, even if you place orders automatically, you still have to sit in front of your computer. Traders always want to spend as little time as possible doing that. Probably, it would be a great ... The empirical data used in the model of neural networks are related to the exchange rate USD/EUR in the period 23.04.2012-04.05.2012. The results shows that the model can be used for FOREX prediction. forex neural network free download. Darknet YOLO This is YOLO-v3 and v2 for Windows and Linux. YOLO (You only look once) is a state-of-the-art, real- We've used neural networks and applied them to trading Forex successfully in the past and decided to translate that method into a Metatrader system. It is widely known that the larget trading firms and hedge funds use sophisticated artificial intelligence and nueral network systems to profit from the financial markets with staggering accuracy. We thought, why can't that power also be available ... Foren-Übersicht ‹ Forex Strategien, Analysen and Ressourcen ‹ Forex Markt; Internet Marketing & SEO by www.seoline.de; Ändere Schriftgröße; Druckansicht; FAQ; Let's create a ML Classifier, Neural Regressor from Scratch. Allgemeines und Aktuelles zum Thema Devisen- und Währungsmarkt. 1 Beitrag • Seite 1 von 1. Let's create a ML Classifier, Neural Regressor from Scratch. Beitrag von ... As an old hand at bot development, though not for stocks, I find this piece really informative. Thanks for sharing your insights! Given my experience in coding bots for crypto trading, the most recent and decent thing that I can recommend is a bot creation platform trality.com I anchored there for quite a while, as they have everything you basically need - Python editor, back-testing and live ... Gft , now sells the neural net for forex for $500. a month. What a rip. You can get the same info for the rental of the Ensign charting, $ 34. a month. They will deny that the GFT neural network is the same as the Ensign Map, but I have Larry Pesavento on Tape saying that he and Ensign are in a lease agreement with GFT, with revenue sharing. Larry made the claim after a presentation he gave ... This makes neural networks a better tool for forex market as neural networks are know their ability of learning unknown processes and forecast the patterns of the process ahead. Lets get to the main point. In this thread I would describe the working of the system I have developed rather than the system itself as it is a long way to explain. The system is basically a time-series-forecasting ... AForge.NET framework provides neural networks library, which contains set of classes aimed for creating different type of artificial neural networks and training them to solve certain tasks, like recognition, approximation, prediction, etc. The library mainly allows users to create two categories of artificial neural networks: feed forward neural networks with activation function and one layer ... Forex Artificial Neural Network Pro Robot review: The Forex Artificial Neural Network Pro Robot trades the signals from an artificial neural network. Network with one hidden layer. Presence of a signal is checked at the closing of the specified period, which significantly increases the optimization and testing speed. It differs from the previous version by a number of additional features ...

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Neural Network For Forex Markets

Forex Market Prediction using Neural Networks and Armax Nielsen Castelo. Loading... Unsubscribe from Nielsen Castelo? Cancel Unsubscribe. Working... Subscribe Subscribed Unsubscribe 385. Loading ... This strategy robot I wrote in C# is using genetically evolved neural nets. It learns trading rules by itself. It's trained on 40% of data sample and validat... Forex Robot TFOT http://iticsoftware.com/mt4-robot-tfot full code with description here: https://mikepapinski.github.io/deep%20learning/machine%20learning/python/forex/2018/12/15/Predict-Candlestick-patterns-with-... The purpose of this video is to show the advantages of the new artificial neural network of the P-Net type, compared to the multi-layer artificial neural net... Using Recurrent Neural Networks To Forecasting of Forex Best Forex Strategy. Loading... Unsubscribe from Best Forex Strategy? Cancel Unsubscribe. Working... Subscribe Subscribed Unsubscribe 868 ... This video from Trading Signal Labs outlines the steps involved in developing the Neural Network to predict buy sell signals for the forex market

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